THE THEORY OF CONTRARY OPINION: A TEST USING SENTIMENT INDICES IN FUTURES MARKETS

The theory of contrary opinion predicts price reversals following extremes in market sentiment. This research tests a survey-based sentiment index's usefulness as a contrary indicator across 28 U.S. futures markets. Using rigorous time-series tests, the sentiment index displays only a sporadic and marginal ability to predict returns, and in those instances the pattern is one of return continuation--not reversals. Therefore, futures traders who rely solely upon sentiment indices as contrary indicators may be misguided.bullish consensus, contrary opinion, market sentiment, Marketing,

Making Sense Of Supply Disruption Risk Research: A Conceptual Framework Grounded In Enactment Theory

The rich stream of supply disruption risk (SDR) literature incorporates several different theories and constructs across studies, but lacks a unifying decision-making framework. We review 79 SDR studies and advance a comprehensive framework, grounded in enactment theory, which integrates the disparate elements of SDR research and offers new insights into the SDR decision-making process. Enactment theory posits a three-stage, closed-loop process, consisting of enactment, selection and retention, through which individuals process and make sense of equivocal environments. We suggest that this sense-making process also underlies SDR decision-making, and provides the theoretical underpinnings for the environmental, organizational and individual factors that affect the formation of buyers\u27 perceptions of SDR and the actions they take to mitigate such risks. In accordance with our conceptual framework, we develop seven propositions that advance the social and psychological factors that drive the idiosyncratic nature of SDR decision-making

Buyer Perceptions of Supply Disruption Risk: A Behavioral View and Empirical Assessment

As supply chains become more complex, firms face increasing risks of supply disruptions. The process through which buyers make decisions in the face of these risks, however, has not been explored. Despite research highlighting the importance of behavioral approaches to risk, there is limited research that applies these views of risk in the supply chain literature. This paper addresses this gap by drawing on behavioral risk theory to investigate the causal relationships amongst situation, representations of risk, and decision-making within the purchasing domain. We operationalize and explore the relationship between three representations of supply disruption risk: magnitude of supply disruption, probability of supply disruption, and overall supply disruption risk. Additionally, we draw on exchange theories to identify product and market factors that impact buyers’ perceptions of the probability and magnitude of supply disruption. Finally, we look at how representations of risk affect the decision to seek alternative sources of supply. We test our model using data collected from 223 purchasing managers and buyers of direct materials. Our results show that both the probability and the magnitude of supply disruption are important to buyers’ overall perceptions of supply disruption risk. We also find that product and market situational factors impact perceptions of risk, but they are best understood through their impact on perceptions of probability and magnitude. Finally, we find that decisions are based on assessments of overall risk. These findings provide insight into the decision-making process and show that all three representations of risk are necessary for fully understanding risky decision-making with respect to supply disruptions

Prospective, multicenter study of P4HB (Phasix) mesh for hernia repair in cohort at risk for complications: 3-Year follow-up

Background: This study represents a prospective, multicenter, open-label study to assess the safety, performance, and outcomes of poly-4-hydroxybutyrate (P4HB, Phasix) mesh for primary ventral, primary incisional, or multiply-recurrent hernia in subjects at risk for complications. This study reports 3-year clinical outcomes. Materials and methods: P4HB mesh was implanted in 121 patients via retrorectus or onlay technique. Physical exam and/or quality of life surveys were completed at 1, 3, 6,12, 18, 24, and 36 months, with 5-year (60-month) follow-up ongoing. Results: A total of n = 121 patients were implanted with P4HB mesh (n = 75 (62%) female) with a mean age of 54.7 +/- 12.0 years and mean BMI of 32.2 +/- 4.5 kg/m(2) (+/-standard deviation). Comorbidities included: obesity (78.5%), active smokers (23.1%), COPD (28.1%), diabetes mellitus (33.1%), immunosuppression (8.3%), coronary artery disease (21.5%), chronic corticosteroid use (5.0%), hypo-albuminemia (2.5%), advanced age (5.0%), and renal insufficiency (0.8%). Hernias were repaired via retrorectus (n = 45, 37.2% with myofascial release (MR) or n = 43, 35.5% without MR), onlay (n = 8, 6.6% with MR or n = 24, 19.8% without MR), or not reported (n = 1, 0.8%). 82 patients (67.8%) completed 36-month follow-up. 17 patients (17.9% +/- 0.4%) experienced hernia recurrence at 3 years, with n = 9 in the retrorectus group and n = 8 in the onlay group. SSI (n = 11) occurred in 9.3% +/- 0.03% of patients. Conclusions: Long-term outcomes following ventral hernia repair with P4HB mesh demonstrate low recurrence rates at 3-year (36-month) postoperative time frame with no patients developing late mesh complications or requiring mesh removal. 5-year (60-month) follow-up is ongoing

Food Security Monitoring and Evaluation in Rural Mali: Preliminary Findings

African Sky is a non-profit organization that has been continuously involved in community development efforts in the Sikasso, Koulikoro, and Segou regions of Mali since 2001. To inform these efforts, an assessment of survey and census data was conducted focusing on the rural village of Dissan, in the Sikasso region. During the evaluation period between 2001-2010 Dissan experienced highly variable rainfall. We hypothesized these conditions would negatively impact farming output, and as a result, nutritional status of the people living in Dissan. Our analysis shows that while land use did not change significantly, by household the variety of sorghum crops increased and non-sorghum food crops decreased. Farmers in Dissan are changing crop distribution due to an increased availability of new sorghum seed and in response to a variety of environmental factors

Genomic Assessment of Blood-Derived Circulating Tumor DNA in Patients With Colorectal Cancers: Correlation With Tissue Sequencing, Therapeutic Response, and Survival.

PurposeGenomic alterations in blood-derived circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) from patients with colorectal cancers were correlated with clinical outcomes.Patients and methodsNext-generation sequencing of ctDNA (54- to 73-gene panel) was performed in 94 patients with colorectal cancer.ResultsMost patients (96%) had metastatic or recurrent disease at the time of blood draw. The median number of nonsynonymous alterations per patient was three (range, zero to 30). The most frequently aberrant genes were TP53 (52.1% of patients), KRAS (34%), and APC (28.7%). Concordance between tissue and blood next-generation sequencing ranged from 63.2% (APC) to 85.5% (BRAF). Altogether, 74 patients (79%) had one or more nonsynonymous alterations, 69 (73%) had one or more potentially actionable alterations, and 61 (65%) had an alteration actionable by a drug approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (on or off label). Lung metastases correlated with improved survival from diagnosis in univariable analysis. ctDNA of 5% or more from blood tests as well as EGFR and ERBB2 (HER2) nonsynonymous alterations correlated with worse survival (but only ERBB2 remained significant in multivariable analysis). No two patients had identical molecular portfolios. Overall, 65% versus 31% of patients treated with matched (n = 17) versus unmatched therapy (n = 18) after ctDNA testing achieved stable disease for 6 months or more, partial response, or complete response (P = .045); progression-free survival, 6.1 versus 2.3 months (P = .08); and survival not reached versus 9.4 months (P = .146; all by multivariable analysis).ConclusionPatients with colorectal cancer have heterogeneous ctDNA profiles, and most harbor potentially actionable ctDNA alterations. Matched therapy yielded higher rates of stable disease for 6 months or more, partial response, or complete response. ctDNA assessment may have clinical utility and merits further investigation

Induction of Paralysis and Visual System Injury in Mice by T Cells Specific for Neuromyelitis Optica Autoantigen Aquaporin-4.

While it is recognized that aquaporin-4 (AQP4)-specific T cells and antibodies participate in the pathogenesis of neuromyelitis optica (NMO), a human central nervous system (CNS) autoimmune demyelinating disease, creation of an AQP4-targeted model with both clinical and histologic manifestations of CNS autoimmunity has proven challenging. Immunization of wild-type (WT) mice with AQP4 peptides elicited T cell proliferation, although those T cells could not transfer disease to naïve recipient mice. Recently, two novel AQP4 T cell epitopes, peptide (p) 135-153 and p201-220, were identified when studying immune responses to AQP4 in AQP4-deficient (AQP4-/-) mice, suggesting T cell reactivity to these epitopes is normally controlled by thymic negative selection. AQP4-/- Th17 polarized T cells primed to either p135-153 or p201-220 induced paralysis in recipient WT mice, that was associated with predominantly leptomeningeal inflammation of the spinal cord and optic nerves. Inflammation surrounding optic nerves and involvement of the inner retinal layers (IRL) were manifested by changes in serial optical coherence tomography (OCT). Here, we illustrate the approaches used to create this new in vivo model of AQP4-targeted CNS autoimmunity (ATCA), which can now be employed to study mechanisms that permit development of pathogenic AQP4-specific T cells and how they may cooperate with B cells in NMO pathogenesis

Rethinking Appropriateness of Actions in Environmental Decisions: Connecting Interest and Identity Negotiation with Plural Valuation

Issues of interest, identity and values intertwine in environmental conflicts, creating challenges that cannot generally be overcome using rationalities grounded in generalised argumentation and abstraction. To address the growing need to engage interests and identities along with plural values in the conservation of biodiversity and ecological systems, we introduce the concept of ‘appropriateness of actions’ and ground it in a relational understanding of environmental ethics. A determination of appropriateness for actions comes from combining outputs from value elicitation with those of interest and identity negotiation in ways that are salient to specific people and their relationships to specific places. Drawing on the Blue Mountain Forest Partnership in the Pacific Northwest, we propose factors of success for supporting appropriate actions: 1) understanding context and identifying key stakeholders; 2) surfacing a diversity of interests and building system-level trust; 3) building empathy for different identities grounded in specific places; 4) eliciting diverse values and seeking to understand their links to worldviews and knowledge systems and; 5) seeking out appropriate actions

Standardized cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) protocols, society for cardiovascular magnetic resonance: board of trustees task force on standardized protocols

<p/> <p>Index</p> <p><b>1. General techniques</b></p> <p>1.1. Stress and safety equipment</p> <p>1.2. Left ventricular (LV) structure and function module</p> <p>1.3. Right ventricular (RV) structure and function module</p> <p>1.4. Gadolinium dosing module.</p> <p>1.5. First pass perfusion</p> <p>1.6. Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE)</p> <p><b>2. Disease specific protocols</b></p> <p><b>2.1. Ischemic heart disease</b></p> <p>2.1.1. Acute myocardial infarction (MI)</p> <p>2.1.2. Chronic ischemic heart disease and viability</p> <p>2.1.3. Dobutamine stress</p> <p>2.1.4. Adenosine stress perfusion</p> <p><b>2.2. Angiography:</b></p> <p>2.2.1. Peripheral magnetic resonance angiography (MRA)</p> <p>2.2.2. Thoracic MRA</p> <p>2.2.3. Anomalous coronary arteries</p> <p>2.2.4. Pulmonary vein evaluation</p> <p><b>2.3. Other</b></p> <p>2.3.1. Non-ischemic cardiomyopathy</p> <p>2.3.2. Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC)</p> <p>2.3.3. Congenital heart disease</p> <p>2.3.4. Valvular heart disease</p> <p>2.3.5. Pericardial disease</p> <p>2.3.6. Masses</p